Abstract:
According to the statistics of Xiangorange Research Institute, from January to the end of October 2023, China has a total of 40 new electrolyzers released, of which 28 are new alkaline electrolyzers, 8 are new PEM electrolyzers, 2 are new SOEC electrolyzers and 2 are new AEM electrolyzers, accounting for 71.8%, 20.5%, 5.1% and 5.1% respectively. Among them, 8 new electrolyzers were intensively released in October alone.
China's release of new electrolytic cells has seen a significant surge.
According to statistics from the Orange Society Research Institute, from January to the end of October 2023, a total of 40 new electrolyzers have been released in China, of which 28 are new alkaline electrolyzers, 8 are new PEM electrolyzers, 2 are new SOEC electrolyzers and 2 are new AEM electrolyzers, accounting for 71.8%, 20.5%, 5.1%, and 5.1% respectively. Among them, in October alone, 8 new electrolyzers were intensively released.
In addition, according to the statistics of Xiangcheng Research Institute, the nominal total production capacity of the two mainstream electrolyzers in China has exceeded 14GW, with alkaline electrolyzers accounting for about 94%. The production capacity of a single manufacturer of alkaline electrolyzers is mostly in the range of 0.5-1.5 GW, and the production capacity of a single manufacturer of PEM electrolyzers is below 0.5GW. More than 50% of the real capacity of electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment manufacturers are expanding production, the new electrolytic cell forces are also stepping up production line construction.
However, what is the real demand of the electrolytic cell market at this stage?
Judging from the bidding situation of electrolytic cells, according to the statistics of Xiangcheng Research Institute, from January to October 2023, a total of 28 electrolytic cells were issued in China. The cumulative bidding demand for electrolytic cells has exceeded 1433MW, reaching twice the annual shipment volume of electrolytic cells in 2022.
Judging from the bidding time node, 21 of the 28 bidding requirements were released in the first half of this year, with a cumulative demand exceeding 798MW. As of November 1 in the second half of the year, only 7 projects have publicly released the bidding requirements for electrolyzers. If the centralized procurement bidding for hydrogen production equipment that China can build in 2023 is excluding (the estimated total number is 125 sets, if 100 sets of 1000 standard alkaline electrolyzers and 25 sets of 200 Nm3/h PEM electrolyzers are used, the total scale is about 525MW), only 110MW of electrolysis equipment is required. However, if the results of the centralized procurement tender for China Energy Construction can be landed within the year, it will greatly boost the volume of electrolytic cell equipment throughout the year.
Judging from the technical route of the electrolyzer for project bids, the demand for alkaline electrolyzer exceeds 1280MW, accounting for about 89.32 percent. PEM electrolyzer bidding demand exceeds 90MW, accounting for about 6.28 percent; SOEC and AEM electrolyzers have also been awarded bids, with SOEC bidding demand of about 63MW, accounting for 4.4 percent. The demand for AEM electrolyzer comes from the scientific research project of West Lake University, which is only 500NL/h equipment demand, the proportion of scale can be ignored for the time being.
Because the alkaline electrolyzer has the advantages of low cost and large hydrogen production per cell, it occupies the main market of electrolyzers in China. In 2021, China's electrolytic cell shipments of alkaline electrolytic cell products accounted for 97%, in 2022 accounted for 95%, is expected to 2023 full-year alkali cell shipments will still account for more than 90%.
Judging from the application of the project, the demonstration application demand for alkaline combined PEM combined hydrogen production is emerging. Among them, the actual demand for alkaline electrolyzer and PEM electrolyzer of Da 'an Scenery Green Hydrogen Synthesis Ammonia Integration Demonstration Project are 195MW and 50MW respectively. The renewable energy hydrogen production project in Yumen Oilfield, PetroChina's first large-scale hydrogen production project, has also put forward the equipment demand for hydrogen production by two routes.